For many years, businesses built data platforms and analytics infrastructures with a significant emphasis on hindsight to study historical data to help forecast future outcomes. Today there is a paradigm shift where businesses acknowledge the need to develop insights and foresights to stay one step ahead. Simply, by improving forecasts, businesses can be less reactive and more proactive, thereby improving results.
Multiple studies on people’s ability to accurately forecast global trends showed that predictions made by a large “crowd” of people were often better than those of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. Indeed, we believe in the concept of “crowd intelligence”, which contends that taking a large and diverse crowd with access to a range of information and pool their predictions, one would end up with much higher forecast accuracy than a similar experience relying on a small group of experts in a given field.
Balton's Ox Weighting Competition
One of the most famous experiments to substantiate this thesis took place in the early 20th century, involving renowned British scientist Francis Galton. Mr. Galton assisted to an ox-weighing competition, where there was a contest for guessing the weight of an ox. After the competition, he requested copies of tickets from all participants. His findings were that out of the nearly 800 participants, none of them was able to accurately guess the ox’s weight, including some experts who took part in the contest. However, the average estimation came in at 1,197 lbs, astonishingly close to the correct weight of 1,198 lbs. His conclusion was clear and simple: A large random collection of people would aggregately have better predictions that any given set of experts.
Humankind’s inherent inclination towards competition drives us to engage in competitive activities, virtually in all realms of life, where we have a constant thirst for showcasing our skills and/or knowledge of specific topics. This fact coupled with businesses’ constant quest for finding innovative ways to interact with their customers, employees, and key stakeholders led to Pyrablu – where we look to be the ultimate “gap-filling” platform.
Through our dynamic data intelligence platform we collect data intelligence generated by our users, and generate granular reports for our clients. This data, combined with businesses own traditional methods of forecasting, will only enhance their management’s decision making process. Unlike most predictions markets ventures, our focus on fun, social engagement and competition is a key in galvanizing a large and sticky user-base.
We believe that the competitive element of our platform as well as the diversity, independence and decentralization of our pool of forecasters would ensure that data generated by the crowd boasts a high degree of accuracy and reliability. Our solutions that stem from that, whether its creating a new and innovative way to connect businesses with their customers and stakeholders, providing unique and unprecedented sponsorship and partnership opportunities, or supplying data to business leaders so that they can stay ahead of the curve and make more informed decisions.